I subscribe to Hubbert’s theory as applied to all natural resources. The science and physics of it is solid, but one must address some issues about it that people often get wrong and misconstrue in its application. Was hubbert wrong? No... but the peak is somewhat midunderstood as he applied it.
One issue is Hubbert’s theory is an engineering based theory and not and economic based theory. The peak paper discussed the application of the formula to recoverable resources based on an estimated consumption curve applied to existing physical reserves.
The theory leaves out the application of external factors of changing demand based on economic recession, new petroleum finds, additional oil recovery technology, and the application of alternative sources of petroleum. These factors applied to Hubert’s theory cause “Peak Mitigation”. They extend the theoretical decrease in the oil supply and set back the time table of the peak event.
In simple terms there are proven ways to make petroleum last longer and replace some of its uses, allowing the world supply to last us longer into the future. The peak theory did not really take these into consideration, and when applied to it Hubbert’s curve takes on an odd slope rather than a bell curve.
The trouble is the theory is still correct in saying that any type of oil or natural resource exists in a finite amount. It will start to run out some time, when is the big question.
